Africa’s Solar Market Set for Record 17GW Growth in 2026

Africa’s solar market is entering another record-breaking year, with new PV installations expected to reach 17GW in 2026, up 45% from 2025, according to a joint analysis by Ember and African Tech Futures Lab.

Solar Growth Spreads Beyond Traditional Markets

Solar expansion is no longer concentrated in a few leading markets such as South Africa. An estimated 36 of Africa’s 54 countries are expected to set new installation records in 2026, with 19 markets potentially recording growth of more than 100%.

South Africa is forecast to add 3.3GW, followed by Egypt at 2GW, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo at 1.7GW each, Algeria at 1.4GW, and Morocco at 1GW.

Distributed Solar Drives the Boom

Unlike markets dominated by large utility-scale projects, Africa’s solar growth is increasingly being driven by distributed and small-scale systems, particularly rooftop PV.

Ember estimates that around 20GW, or 75%, of the 26GW added across Africa between 2023 and 2025 came from distributed solar. However, the actual market could be significantly larger because only a limited number of countries currently report distributed PV data.

Chinese Module Exports Signal Strong Demand

Chinese module exports provide an early indicator of Africa’s solar expansion. Between July 2025 and June 2026, China exported approximately 23GW of PV modules to Africa, up 53% year on year.

The market is also becoming more geographically diverse. South Africa accounted for 52% of Africa’s module imports in 2023, but its share had fallen to just 20% by June 2026.

A Fast-Growing but Underreported Market

The rapid expansion of distributed solar is creating challenges for policymakers, as official statistics are struggling to capture the full scale of the market.

The growth is being driven less by subsidies and more by demand for cheaper and more reliable electricity. Increasingly, solar combined with battery storage is also emerging as an alternative to diesel generators.

With solar deployment accelerating across both large and small markets, Africa is becoming one of the world’s fastest-growing opportunities for solar and energy storage.